By Professor David Zilberman, Agricultural and Resource Economics
As the world is preparing for a big environmental summit in Copenhagen, knowing that an agreement is very unlikely, it’s become apparent how difficult it is to reach an environmental agreement that can stick and change the course of history. People that can bring about such agreement are really rare, and last week we lost one of them, Tom Graff.
Tom was an environmental lawyer who opened the west coast office of the Environmental Defense.
Water is the most precious resource of the west. The west was built by the diversion of water from wild lands to mine gold, build cities, and irrigate farmland. Some were cheering these activities that “make the desert bloom,” but in the meantime many regions, like Owens Valley, were ravaged. The legal establishment provided tools, like the prior appropriation doctrine, that enabled these diversions. This legal doctrine allowed diversions as long as the water provides “beneficial use,” was based on the principles of “first in time, first in right,” and “use it or lose it,” and restricted trading in water.
Continue reading "Tom Graff: A practical environmental visionary" »
Tom Graff, 65, died yesterday, November 11, 2009, after a two-and-a-half year battle with cancer.
In 1971, Tom opened the first California Office of the Environmental Defense Fund and went on to be one of the most influential environmentalists in California water policy during the proceeding 30 years.
In 2008, to honor Tom’s work, as well as a long-standing professional association and friendship, George A. Miller and his wife, Janet A. McKinley, funded the Thomas J. Graff Chair in the College of Natural Resources.
For more information on Tom and his life’s work please see:
Professor Michael Hanemann of ARE discusses S.1733, the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act, on KPFA's "Letters to Washington."
Download the Show
(Scroll in to the 45-minute mark to hear the segment).
As the U.S. Senate debates clean energy and climate legislation, a new economic analysis finds that strong federal policy could stimulate both employment and income growth across the national economy. The new study was conducted by the University of California in collaboration with University of Illinois and Yale University and provides an in-depth, state-by-state examination of the impacts of three pillars of federal legislation: energy efficiency, renewable energy and limits on carbon pollution.
“This report shows that stronger federal energy and climate policies are compatible with economic growth,” said the report’s lead author David Roland-Holst, Adjunct Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Berkeley. “Those who say we cannot afford to take action now may not understand the opportunity we stand to lose by not acting. By revenue, energy is the world’s largest industry, yet traditional energy use patterns have created unsustainable carbon liabilities that threaten all of us. The next great knowledge-intensive sector will arise in an emerging multi-billion dollar global clean energy market. To participate in this technology breakout, we need policies that price carbon risk responsibly and create appropriate incentives for investors and innovators.”
Using EAGLE, a new state-of-the-art forecasting model, the study assesses the detailed economic implications of climate and energy policies currently under consideration in Congress. On a state-by-state basis, the study models both moderate and aggressive implementation of policies that put a cap on carbon emissions, create a market based program to reduce carbon emissions, and standards for and investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency.
The study is available in summary form as a PDF: Report: New ARE Study Projects Growth Dividend.
By Professor David Zilberman
I got a kick out of learning that Eleanor Ostrom and Berkeley’s Oliver Williamson won the Nobel in Economics. I had a similar response when the Psychologist, Dan Kahneman, won the prize. These are important steps in the expansion of economics and establishing an integrated social science based on rigorous logical thinking and empiricism. This integrated new social science will provide insight on how people think and interact and how to improve the human condition.
It is useful to contrast the evolution of economics and biology. Research in the biological sciences first identifies and documents various organisms and only later develops a general theory, Darwinian evolution theory, that explains how species interact and evolve. In economics, Adam Smith developed a theory first. For years, economists considered only two institutions: the firm and the government. But, we know that not all firms are alike and that there are many other organizations that are neither government nor firms. Political scientists and sociologists are very good in identifying different types of organizations and Williamson and Ostrom marry the organizational complexity with basic behavioral principles that are emphasized in economics.
Continue reading "Toward a More Integrated Social Science" »
What is the lifecycle of your sunscreen? How about the environmental impact of buying a laptop? Professor Dara O'Rourke discusses how he came up with the idea for The Good Guide, a consumer reference that helps people make informed decisions about products based on safety and environmental concerns.
Original publication
by Professor David Roland-Holst, ARE
A new analysis by ARE economists at University of California, Berkeley finds that the pollution reduction and energy efficiency measures contained in the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) – already passed by the U.S. House of Representatives -- could create between 918,000 and 1.9 million new jobs, increase annual household income by $487-1,175 per year and boost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by $39 - $111 billion by 2020.
The new comprehensive national economic assessment of ACES was conducted in collaboration with University of Illinois and Yale University, using EAGLE, a new state-of-the-art forecasting model.
Table 1: U.S. Macroeconomic Impacts by 2020
| |
2010 Baseline |
2020 Baseline Projection |
2020 with ACES |
Net Increase due to ACES |
Percent Change due to ACES |
| Employment (Thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EAGLE estimates of ACES impacts include the following:
- Between 2010 and 2020, national employment would see a net increase of 918,000 (moderate-efficiency case) to 1.9 million (high-efficiency case) jobs under ACES—on top of baseline growth of 24 million jobs over the same timeframe.
- By 2020, ACES would boost average real household income by $487 to $1,175 per year by 2020 (2008 dollars).
- ACES would result in U.S. real Gross Domestic Product that is $39 billion-$111 billion higher in 2020 than without legislation. That is a 0.2% to 0.7% increase on top of baseline growth of 28% between 2010 and 2020. (See endnotes for definitions.)
Results from the EAGLE modeling are consistent with forecasts by U.S. government agencies – such as the Environmental Protection Agency, Congressional Budget Office, and the Department of Energy – that show substantial economic benefits from the more pollution reduction, renewable energy deployment, and energy efficiency measures in this comprehensive energy and climate legislation.
A summary of the new report can be found at the
EAGLE Fact Sheet on ACES.
In a recent conversation with Green Technology magazine, Professor David Roland-Holst, co-author of two key reports on green economic policies, discussed workforce creation, federal stimulus money and governmental policymaking.
Read the original article here.
Continue reading "Green Perspectives: David Roland-Holst " »
A study prepared by Berkeley Economic Consulting, under the direction of David Sunding, professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, outlines the statewide economic and water supply implications of ongoing water pumping restrictions imposed by federal courts in California to protect the Delta smelt. In early December, 2008, environmental and sport-fishing groups filed suit to force the complete and total shutdown of delta water pumping operations.
According to the study, statewide economic impacts can exceed $1 billion per year during drought years such as those currently facing the state, and may well exceed $3 billion should the state enter a prolonged dry period. Additionally, the report documents the severe water supply implications of the Court's orders. Even during average and wet periods the Court imposed restrictions exacerbate ongoing drought conditions by limiting the ability of water managers to replenish water storage facilities and groundwater reserves. The net result is a significant additional blow to the state economy and a greatly reduced ability to respond to severe drought and other emergencies.
"The export restrictions imposed in a effort to conserve the Delta smelt clearly add significant new risks to California's water supply system," said Sunding. "The water pumping restrictions not only worsen the current drought, they also ensure that water rationing, fallowed farm land and economic dislocation will be the norm. The study highlights the unsustainable nature of the state's current water system. Rather than a series of court-imposed restrictions aimed at individual species, California would benefit from a more comprehensive fix for the delta."
Hot on the heels of a report demonstrating the economic opportunities available to California if it invests in policies to address climate change, ARE adjunct professor David Roland-Holst has released a new study showing the enormous costs to the state posed by global warming.
About $2.5 trillion of real estate assets in California are at risk, with a projected annual price tag of between $300 million and $3.9 billion, according to the report.
Audio: David Roland-Holst discusses the report on KQED Forum.
Reports the LA Times:
For the first time, the costs of global warming's projected effects in the nation's largest state have been quantified: About $2.5 trillion of real estate assets in California are at risk from extreme weather events, sea level rise and wildfires, with a projected annual price tag of between $300 million and $3.9 billion.
Continue reading "The staggering cost of climate change quantified for California" »
From the New York Times: "California’s energy-efficiency policies created nearly 1.5 million jobs from 1977 to 2007, while eliminating fewer than 25,000, according to a study to be released Monday."
The study, conducted by David Roland-Holst, an economist at the Center for Energy, Resources and Economic Sustainability at the University of California, Berkeley, found that while the state’s policies lowered employee compensation in the electric power industry by an estimated $1.6 billion over that period, it improved compensation in the state over all by $44.6 billion.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/20green.html
Roland-Holst's work was widely covered by media around thew world, including:
Discover Magazine
The San Francisco Chronicle
The Los Angeles Times
Larry Karp, professor of agricultural and resource economics, and Jinhua Zhao, an economist at Iowa State University (and Berkeley ARE Ph.D.) were recently named winners of the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements research paper competition.
As reported in Breakthroughs last year, their paper proposes a design for a successor to the Kyoto Protocol.
"The successor to the Kyoto Protocol should impose national ceilings on rich countries' greenhouse gas emissions and promote voluntary abatement by developing countries," the authors write. "Our proposal gives signatories the option of exercising an escape clause that relaxes their requirement to abate. This feature helps to solve the participation and compliance problems that have weakened the Protocol. We support the use of carefully circumscribed trade restrictions in order to reduce the real or perceived problem of carbon leakage."
The full paper is available here.
A policy paper by University of California Berkeley economist David Roland-Holst says that greenhouse gass "offsets," a popular strategy for meeting carbon emissions, should play only a limited role in cap-and-trade programs.
Think Globally, Innovate Locally: Offsets and the Risks of Outsourcing Climate Action.
Continue reading "The Risks of Outsourcing Climate Action" »
BERKELEY – Rather than suppressing local communities in developing nations, nature reserves attract human settlement, according to a new study by researchers.
In an analysis of 306 rural protected areas in 45 countries in Africa and Latin America, the researchers found that, on average, the rate of human population growth along the borders of protected areas was nearly twice that of neighboring rural areas.
Continue reading "Nature reserves attract humans, but at a cost to biodiversity, says study " »
BERKELEY – The interaction between a virus and its host is often portrayed as an arms race, with each new viral attack parried by the host and each new defense by the host one-upped by the virus.
Researchers have for the first time documented this arms race within the genes of both the virus and its host.
In the May 23 issue of Science, the researchers confirm that a sophisticated microbial "immune system" spits out bits of RNA to silence viral genes, and they also report the viruses' counterstrategy - to shuffle their DNA until their genome sequences becomes scrambled enough to evade the RNA silencers.
Continue reading "Rapid escalation characterizes arms race between virus and host " »
The growth in China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is far outpacing previous estimates, making the goal of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases even more difficult, according to a new analysis by economists at the University of California, Berkeley, and UC San Diego.
Listen to the NPR story on "All Things Considered"
Previous estimates, including those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, say the region that includes China will see a 2.5 to 5 percent annual increase in CO2 emissions, the largest contributor to atmospheric greenhouse gases, between 2004 and 2010. The new UC analysis puts that annual growth rate for China to at least 11 percent for the same time period.
Continue reading "New analysis shows alarming increase in expected growth of China's carbon dioxide emissions" »
This week, Slate.com's Joel Waldfogel considers "The Tiger Woods Effect -- How Tiger throws off golf's incentive structure."
Strong competitors are generally thought to bring out the best in everyone, but what if the competition is so strong it makes the top prize feel out of reach? Can strong competition actually undermine a reward structure? A new study by Jennifer Brown of UC Berkeley provides an answer to this question by looking at the world of professional golf, with Tiger Woods playing the role of the strong competitor.
Zubin Jelveh's Odd Numbers blog on Conde Nast Portfolio.com first noted the work on the "(Adverse) Effect of Competing with Superstars."
Read Portfolio's full take on Brown's work here...
Read the Slate.com article here.
On September 16, 2005, the College of Natural Resources celebrated Amadeo Peter Giannini's foresight and his generosity to the University of California and to agriculture in California and throughout the world.
The Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics was established in 1928 through the gift of $1.5 million dollars from Amadeo Peter Giannini, founder of the Bank of America. One third of the gift was designated to construct Giannini Hall and the remaining two thirds was used to establish the Giannini Foundation, which supports the Giannini Libraries and research on agricultural economics at the University of California.
Continue reading "CNR Celebrates 75th Anniversary of the Construction of Giannini Hall" »
