China’s carbon dioxide emissions seem to be growing at a much faster pace than previously thought, making the already-daunting goal of stabilizing its atmospheric greenhouse gases even more difficult to reach.

Previous estimates indicate that the region that includes China will experience a 2.5 to 5 percent annual increase in CO2 emissions between 2004 and 2010. But a new analysis by UC economists estimates the annual growth rate for China at 11 percent—and that’s their conservative estimate. The authors of the study, Maximillian Auffhammer, assistant professor of agricultural and resource economics, and Richard Carson, UC San Diego professor of economics, based their findings on detailed pollution data from China’s 30 provincial entities. They believe that this method is more sophisticated and reliable than methods used in previous studies.

Even the most conservative forecast predicts that by 2010 there will be an increase (since 2000) of 600 million metric tons of carbon emissions in China. This amount of growth from China alone would dramatically overshadow the 116 million metric tons of emissions-reductions pledged collectively by all the developed countries in the Kyoto Protocol. Stated another way, the projected annual increase in emissions in China over the next several years is greater than the current emissions produced by either Great Britain or Germany.

Auffhammer says this challenges the widely held belief that actions taken by the wealthy, industrialized nations alone offer a viable strategy to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

“Making China and other developing countries an integral part of any future climate agreement is now even more important,” says Auffhammer. “It was expected that the efficiency of China’s power generation would continue to improve as per capita income increased, slowing emissions growth. What we’re finding instead is that the emissions growth rate is surpassing our worst expectations, and that means the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is going to be much, much harder to achieve.”

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