by Professor David Roland-Holst, ARE
A new analysis by ARE economists at University of California, Berkeley finds that the pollution reduction and energy efficiency measures contained in the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) — already passed by the U.S. House of Representatives -- could create between 918,000 and 1.9 million new jobs, increase annual household income by $487-1,175 per year and boost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by $39 - $111 billion by 2020.
The new comprehensive national economic assessment of ACES was conducted in collaboration with University of Illinois and Yale University, using EAGLE, a new state-of-the-art forecasting model.
Table 1: U.S. Macroeconomic Impacts by 2020
| ||2010 Baseline||2020 Baseline Projection||2020 with ACES||Net Increase due to ACES||Percent Change due to ACES|
EAGLE estimates of ACES impacts include the following:
- Between 2010 and 2020, national employment would see a net increase of 918,000 (moderate-efficiency case) to 1.9 million (high-efficiency case) jobs under ACES–on top of baseline growth of 24 million jobs over the same timeframe.
- By 2020, ACES would boost average real household income by $487 to $1,175 per year by 2020 (2008 dollars).
- ACES would result in U.S. real Gross Domestic Product that is $39 billion-$111 billion higher in 2020 than without legislation. That is a 0.2% to 0.7% increase on top of baseline growth of 28% between 2010 and 2020. (See endnotes for definitions.)
Results from the EAGLE modeling are consistent with forecasts by U.S. government agencies — such as the Environmental Protection Agency, Congressional Budget Office, and the Department of Energy — that show substantial economic benefits from the more pollution reduction, renewable energy deployment, and energy efficiency measures in this comprehensive energy and climate legislation.
A summary of the new report can be found at the EAGLE Fact Sheet on ACES