Publications

Research Products

Adobe PDF files can be downloaded by clicking the *PDF* link.  These documents are provided for use by individuals only and are not intended for widespread dispersal.

2015

Batllori, E., D.D. Ackerly, and M.A. Moritz. 2015. A minimal model of fire-vegetation feedbacks and disturbance stochasticity generates alternative stable states in grassland-shrubland-woodland systems Environmental Research Letters 10(3): 034018. PDF

Butsic, E., M. Kelly, and M.A. Moritz. 2015. Land use and wildfire: a review of local interactions and teleconnections Land 4: 140-156. PDF

Chornesky, E.A., D.D. Ackerly, P. Beier, F.W. Davis, L.E. Flint, J.J. Lawler, P.B. Moyle, M.A. Moritz, M. Scoonover, K. Byrd, P. Alvarez, N.E. Heller, E.R. Micheli, and S.B. Weiss. 2015. Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate BioScience 65(3): 247-262. PDF

Forrestel, A.B., B.S. Ramage, T. Moody, M.A. Moritz, M. and S.L. Stephens. 2015. Disease, fuels, and potential fire behavior: impacts of sudden oak death in two coastal California forest types Forest Ecology and Management 348: 23-30. PDFx

Hannah, L., L. Flint, A.D. Syphard, M.A. Moritz, L.B. Buckley, and I.M. McCullough. 2015. Place and process in conservation planning for climate change: a reply to Keppel and Wardell-Johnson. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 30(5): 234-235. PDF

Meng, R., P.E. Dennison, C. Huang, M.A. Moritz, and C.M. D’Antonio. 2015. Effects of fire severity and post-fire climate on short-term vegetation recovery of mixed-conifer and red fir forests in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California Remote Sensing of Environment 171: 311-325. PDF

Schwartz, M.W., N. Butt, C.R. Dolanc, A. Holguin, M.A. Moritz, M.P. North, H.D. Safford, N.L. Stephenson, J.H. Thorne, and P.J. van Mantgem. 2015. Increasing elevation of fire in the Sierra Nevada and implications for forest change Ecosphere 6(7): 121. PDF

Serra-Diaz, J.M., J. Franklin, L.C. Sweet, I.M. McCullough, A.D. Syphard, H.M. Regan, L.E. Flint, A.L. Flint, J.R. Dingman, M.A. Moritz, K. Redmond, L. Hannah, and F.W. Davis. 2015. Averaged 30 year climate change projections mask opportunities for species establishment Ecography 38: 001-002. PDF

2014

Batllori, E., C. Miller, M.-A. Parisien, S.A. Parks, and M.A. Moritz. 2014. Is US climatic diversity well represented within the existing federal protection network? Ecological Applications 24(8): 1898-1907. PDF

Dennison, P.E., S.C. Brewer, J.D. Arnold, and M.A. Moritz. 2014. Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011. Geophysical Research Letters 41(8): 2928-2933. PDF

Hannah, L., L. Flint, A.D. Syphard, M.A. Moritz, L.B. Buckley, and I.M. McCullough. 2014. Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 9(7): 390-397. PDF

Krawchuk, M.A.and M.A. Moritz. 2014. Burning issues: statistical analyses of global fire data to inform assessments of environmental change. Environmetrics 25(6): 472-481. PDF

Mann, M.L., P. Berck, M.A. Moritz, E. Batllori, J.G. Baldwin, C.K. Gately, and D.R. Cameron. 2014. Modeling residential development in California from 2000 to 2050: Integrating wildfire risk, wildland and agricultural encroachment. Land Use Policy 41: 438-452. PDF

Meng, R., P.E. Dennison, C.M. D’Antonio, and M.A. Moritz. 2014. Remote sensing analysis of vegetation recovery following short-interval fires in southern California shrublands PLoS ONE 9(2): e110637. PDFx

Moritz, M.A., E. Batllori, R.A. Bradstock, A.M. Gill, J. Handmer, P.F. Hessburg, J. Leonard, S. McCaffrey, D.C. Odion, T. Schoennagel, and A.D. Syphard. 2014. Learning to coexist with wildfire. Nature 515(7525): 58-66. PDF

Odion, D.C., C.T. Hanson, A. Arsenault, W.L. Baker, D.A. DellaSala, R.L. Hutto, W. Klenner, M.A. Moritz and M.A. Williams. 2014. Examining historical and current mixed-severity fire regimes in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America. PLoS ONE 9(2): e87852. PDF

Parisien, M.-A., S.A. Parks, M.A. Krawchuk, J.M. Little, M.D. Flannigan, L.M. Gowman, and M.A. Moritz. 2014. An analysis of controls on fire activity in boreal Canada: comparing models built with different temporal resolutions. Ecological Applications 24: 1341-1356. PDF

Roos, C.I., D.M.J.S. Bowman, J.K. Balch, P. Artaxo, W.J. Bond, M. Cochrane, C.M. D’Antonio, R. DeFries, R., M. Mack, F.H. Johnston, M.A. Krawchuk, C.A. Kull, M.A. Moritz, S. Pyne, A.C. Scott, and T.W. Swetnam. 2014. Pyrogeography, historical ecology, and the human dimensions of fire regimes. Journal of Biogeography 41: 833–836. PDF

2013

Barros, A.M., J. Pereira, M.A. Moritz, and S.L. Stephens. 2013. Spatial characterization of wildfire orientation patterns in California. Forests 4: 197-217 PDF

Batllori, E., M.-A. Parisien, M.A. Krawchuk, and M.A. Moritz. 2013. Climate change-induced shifts in fire for Mediterranean ecosystems.Global Ecology and Biogeography 22: 1118-1129 PDF

Bell, T.L., S.L. Stephens, and M.A. Moritz. 2013. Short-term physiological effects of smoke on grapevine leaves. International Journal of Wildland Fire WF12140 PDF

Moritz, M.A., M.D. Hurteau, K.N. Suding, and C.M. D’Antonio. 2013. Bounded ranges of variation as a framework for future conservation and fire management. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1286: 92-107 PDF

2012

Gibbons P., L. van Bommel, A.M. Gill, G.J. Cary, D.A. Driscoll, R.A. Bradstock, E. Knight, M.A. Moritz, S.L. Stephens, and D. Lindenmayer. 2012.Land management practices associated with house loss in Wildfires. PLoS ONE 7: e29212. PDF

Krawchuk, M.A. and M.A. Moritz. 2012. Fire and Climate Change in California. California Energy Commission CEC-500-2012-026 PDF

Moritz, M.A., M.-A. Parisien, E. Batllori, M.A. Krawchuk, J. Van Dorn, D.J. Ganz, and K. Hayhoe. 2012. Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity. Ecosphere 3(6): 49 PDF

Parisien, M.-A., S. Snetsinger, J.A. Greenberg, C.R. Nelson, T. Schoennagel, S.Z. Dobrowski, and M.A. Moritz. 2012. Spatial variability in wildfire probability across the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21:313-327 PDF

Ramage, B.S., A.B. Forrestel, M.A. Moritz, and K.L. O’Hara. 2012. Sudden oak death disease progression across two forest types and spatial scales. Journal of Vegetation Science 23: 151-163 PDF

2011

Bowman, D.M.J.S., J. Balch, P. Artaxo, W.J. Bond, M.A. Cochrane, C.M. D’Antonio, R. DeFries, F.H. Johnston, J.E. Keeley, M.A. Krawchuk, C.A. Kull, M. Mack, M.A. Moritz, S. Pyne, C.I. Roos, A.C. Scott, N.S. Sodhi, and T.W. Swetnam. 2011. The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth. Journal of Biogeography 38: 2223-2236. PDF

Forrestel, A.B., M.A. Moritz, and S.L. Stephens. 2011. Landscape-scale vegetation change following fire in Point Reyes, California, USA. Fire Ecology 7: 114-128. PDF

Krawchuk, M.A. and M.A. Moritz. 2011. Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient. Ecology 92: 121-132. PDF

Moritz, M.A., P.F. Hessburg, and N.A. Povak. 2011. Native fire regimes and landscape resilience. In McKenzie, D., C. Miller, and D.A. Falk (Eds.) The Landscape Ecology of Fire. Springer Netherlands, pp 51-86. PDF

Parisien, M.-A., S.A. Parks, M.A. Krawchuk, M.D. Flannigan, L.M. Bowman, and M.A. Moritz. 2011. Scale-dependent controls on the area burned in the boreal forest of Canada, 1980-2005. Ecological Applications 21: 789-805. PDF

Parisien, M.-A., S.A. Parks, C. Miller, M.A. Krawchuk, M. Heathcott, and M.A. Moritz. 2011. Contributions of ignitions, fuels, and weather to the spatial patterns of burn probability of a boreal landscape. Ecosystems 14: 1141-1155. PDF

Peterson, S.H., M.A. Moritz, M.E. Morais, P.E. Dennison, and J.M. Carlson. 2011. Modelling long-term fire regimes of southern California shrublands. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20: 1-16. PDF

2010

Calder, W.J., G. Lifferth, M.A. Moritz, and S.B. St. Clair. 2010. Physiological effects of smoke exposure on deciduous and conifer tree species. International Journal of Forestry Research 2010:438930. PDF

Moritz, M.A., T.J. Moody, M.A. Krawchuk, M. Hughes, and A. Hall. 2010. Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems. Geophysical Research Letters 37, L04801, doi:10.1029/2009GL041735. PDF

Odion, D.C., M.A. Moritz, and D.A. DellaSala. 2010. Alternative community states maintained by fire in the Klamath Mountains, USA. Journal of Ecology 98: 96-105. PDF

Ramage, B., A. Forrestel, M. Moritz, and K. O’Hara, K. 2010. Long Term Monitoring of the Ecological Impacts of Sudden Oak Death in Point Reyes National Seashore: 2007-2009. National Park Service Project Report. Point Reyes National Seashore: Point Reyes Station, CA. PDF

2009

Bowman, D.M.J.S., J.K. Balch, P. Artaxo, W.J. Bond, J.M. Carlson, M.A. Cochrane, C.M. D’Antonio, R.S. DeFries, J.C. Doyle, S.P. Harrison, F.H. Johnston, J.E. Keeley, M.A. Krawchuk, C.A. Kull, J.B.Marston, M.A. Moritz, I.C. Prentice, C.I. Roos, A.C. Scott, T.W. Swetnam, G.R. van der Werf, and S.J. Pyne. 2009. Fire in the Earth system. Science 324: 481-484. PDF

Dennison, P.E. and M.A. Moritz. 2009. Critical live fuel moisture in chaparral ecosystems: a threshold for fire activity and its relationship to antecedent precipitation. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 1021-1027. PDF

Krawchuk, M.A. and M.A. Moritz. 2009. Fire regimes of China: inference from statistical comparison with the United States. Global Ecology and Biogeography 18: 626-639. PDF

Keeley, J.E., H. Safford, C.J. Fotheringham, Franklin, J., and M.A. Moritz. 2009. The 2007 southern California Wildfires: lessons in complexity. Journal of Forestry 107: 287-296. PDF

Krawchuk, M.A., M.A. Moritz, M.-A. Parisien, J. Van Dorn, and K. Hayhoe. 2009. Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire. PLoS ONE 4(4): e5102. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102. PDF

Moody, T.J., S.L. Stephens, and M.A. Moritz. 2009. Effects of fuels management on future wildfires in the Lake Tahoe Basin. In: Effects of Fuel Management in the Tahoe Basin: A Scientific Literature Review. Final Report, pp. 83-114. PDF

Moritz, M.A., T.J. Moody, L.J. Miles, M.M. Smith, and P. de Valpine. 2009. The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 16: 271-289. PDF

Parisien, M.-A. and M.A. Moritz. 2009. Environmental controls on the distribution of wildfire at multiple spatial scales. Ecological Monographs 79: 127-154. PDF

Stephens, S.L., M.A. Adams, J. Handmer, F.R. Kearns, B. Leicester, J. Leonard, and M.A. Moritz. 2009. Urban-wildland fires: how California and other regions of the US can learn from Australia. Environmental Research Letters 4: 014010. PDF

2008

Clark, R.E., A.S. Hope, S. Tarantola, D. Gatelli, P.E. Dennison, and M.A. Moritz. 2008. Sensitivity analysis of a fire spread model in a chaparral landscape. Fire Ecology 4: 1-13. PDF

Cleve, C., M. Kelly, F. Kearns, and M. Moritz. 2008. Classification of the wildland–urban interface: A comparison of pixel- and object-based classifications using high-resolution aerial photography. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 32: 317-326. PDF

Dennison, P.E., M.A. Moritz, and R.S. Taylor. 2008. Evaluating predictive models of critical live fuel moisture in the Santa Monica Mountains, California. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17: 18–27. PDF

Fried, J.S., J.K. Gilless, W.J. Riley, T.J. Moody, C. Simon de Blas, K. Hayhoe, M. Moritz, S. Stephens, and M. Torn. 2008. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success. Climatic Change 87 (Suppl 1): S251-S264. PDF

Hessburg, P.F. and M.A. Moritz. 2008. Native fire regimes and landscape resilience. EGU General Assembly Geophysical Research Abstracts10: EGU2008-A-00190. PDF

Moritz, M. and M. Krawchuk. 2008. Global pyrogeography: Macro-scaled models of fire-climate relationships for understanding current and future conditions. EGU General Assembly Geophysical Research Abstracts 10: EGU2008-A-11511. PDF

Moritz, M.A. and S.L. Stephens. 2008. Fire and sustainability: considerations for California’s altered future climate. Climatic Change 87 (Suppl 1): S265-S271. PDF

Moritz, M., T. Moody, B. Ramage, and A. Forestel. 2008. Spatial Distribution and Impacts of Phytophthora ramourm and sudden oak death in Point Reyes National Seashore. National Park Service Project Report. Point Reyes National Seashore: Point Reyes Station, CA. PDF

Peterson, S.H., M.E. Morais, J.M. Carlson, P.E. Dennison, D.A. Roberts, M.A. Moritz, and D.R. Weise. 2008. Spatial Modeling of Fire in Shrublands Using HFire. Res. Pap. PSW-RP-259. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station: Albany, CA. PDF

2007

Dennison, P.E., T.J. Cova, and M.A. Moritz. 2007. WUIVAC: a wildland-urban interface evacuation trigger model applied in strategic wildfire scenarios. Natural Hazards 41: 181-199. PDF

Kearns, F.R., N.C. Goldstein, B. Pedersen, and M.A. Moritz. 2007. The fire information engine: a web-based toolkit for wildfire-related needs. Journal of Map & Geography Libraries 4: 1. PDF

2006

Moritz, M.A. and S.L. Stephens. 2006. Fire and sustainability: Considerations for California’s altered future climate. California Energy Commission, Public Interest Energy Research Program, California Climate Change Center. PDF

Fried, J.S., K. Gilless, W.J. Riley, T.J. Moody, C.S. de Blas, K. Hayhoe, M.A. Moritz, S.L. Stephens, and M. Torn. 2006. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire severity and outcomes in California: A preliminary analysis. California Energy Commission, Public Interest Energy Research Program, California Climate Change Center.

2005

Moritz, M.A. 2005. Rethinking how we live with fire. In: R. Halsey, Fire, Chaparral, and Survival in Southern California, Sunbelt Publications. PDF

Moritz, M.A., M.E. Morais, L.A. Summerell, J.M. Carlson, and J. Doyle. 2005. Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 102: 17912-17917

Cova, T.J., P.E. Dennison, T.H. Kim, and M.A. Moritz. 2005. Setting wildfire evacuation trigger points using fire spread modeling and GISTransactions in GIS 9: 603-617. PDF

Moritz, M.A. and D.C. Odion. 2005. Examining the relationship between fire history and sudden oak death patterns: A case study in Sonoma County. In Proceedings of 2nd Sudden Oak Death Science Symposium, Shea PJ, Haverty M, eds. Albany, CA: Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. PDF

Moritz, M.A. and D.C. Odion. 2005. Examining the strength and possible causes of the relationship between fire history and Sudden Oak Death. Oecologia 144: 106-114. PDF

2004

Keeley, J.E., C.J. Fotheringham, and M.A. Moritz. 2004. Lessons from the October 2003 wildfires in southern California. Journal of Forestry 102: 26-31. PDF

Odion, D.C., E.J. Frost, J.R. Strittholt, H. Jiang, D.A. Dellasala, and M.A. Moritz. 2004. Patterns of fire severity and forest conditions in the Western Klamath Mountains, California. Conservation Biology 18: 927-936. PDF

Moritz, M.A., J.E. Keeley, E.A. Johnson, and A.A. Schaffner. 2004. Testing a basic assumption of shrubland fire management: How important is fuel age? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2:67-72. PDF

1992 – 2003

Moritz, M.A. 2003. Spatio-temporal analysis of controls of shrubland fire regimes: Age dependency and fire hazard. Ecology 84:351-361. PDF

Swanson Hydrology & Geomorphology et al. 2002. Watershed Resources Management Plan: Planning Analysis and Recommendations Report. Prepared for City of Santa Cruz Water Department and The Watershed Resources Technical Advisory Task Force.

Davis, F.W. and M.A. Moritz. 2001. Mechanisms of disturbance. Pp. 153-160 in Encyclopedia of Biodiversity, S. Levin editor, Academic Press. PDF

Tyler, C., D. Odion, D. Meade, and M.A. Moritz. 2000. Factors affecting regeneration of Morro Manzanita (Arctostaphylos morroensis): Reproductive biology and response to prescribed burning. Report for the California Department of Fish and Game, Species Conservation and Recovery Program.

Goldstein, N.C., J.T. Candau and M.A. Moritz. 2000. Burning Santa Barbara at both ends: A study of fire history and urban growth predictions. Proceedings of 4th International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling (GIS/EM4). Banff, Alberta, Canada, September 2-8, 2000.

Moritz, M.A. 1999. Controls on disturbance regime dynamics: Fire in Los Padres National Forest. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of California at Santa Barbara.

Romme, W.H., E.G. Everham, L.E. Frelich, M.A. Moritz, and R.E. Sparks. 1998. Are large, infrequent disturbances qualitatively different from small, frequent disturbances?  Ecosystems 1:524-534. PDF

Stoms, D.M., M.I. Borchert, M.A. Moritz, and F.W. Davis. 1998. A systematic process for selecting representative research natural areasNatural Areas Journal 18:338-349. PDF

Moritz, M.A. 1997. Analyzing extreme disturbance events: Fire in Los Padres National ForestEcological Applications 7:1252-1262. PDF

Moritz, M.A. and F.W. Davis. 1997. A method for examining patterns in mapped fire histories: Identification of homogeneous fire landscapes, in (refereed) Proceedings of Fire in California Ecosystems: Integrating Ecology, Prevention, and Management, San Diego, California; November 17-20, 1997. PDF

Moritz, M.A., D.M. Stoms, M.I. Borchert, and F.W. Davis. 1997. A proposed protocol for identifying potential Research Natural Areas with Gap Analysis data, in Proceedings of the 17th Annual ESRI User Conference, San Diego, California; July 8-11, 1997.

Davis, F.W., J. Walsh, M.A. Moritz, and D.M. Stoms. 1996. A Digital Soils Layer for Los Padres National Forest. Final Report to National Forest Service. U.C. Santa Barbara.

Friedl, M.A., F.W. Davis, J. Michaelsen, and M.A. Moritz. 1995. Scaling and uncertainty in the relationship between the NDVI and land surface biophysical variables: an analysis using a scene simulation model and data from FIFE. Remote Sensing of Environment 54:233-246. PDF

Sham, C.H., J.W. Brawley, and M.A. Moritz. 1995. Quantifying septic nitrogen loadings to receiving waters: Waquoit Bay, Massachusetts. International Journal of Geographic Information Systems 9:463-473. PDF

Marcus, M.D., M. Allen-Godin, J.W. Brawley, V.P. Meiers, M.A. Moritz, E.F. Ettlinger, C.H. Sham, C.S. Creager, and J.P. Butcher. 1992. Technical Support for Wetlands Advanced Identification in California Coastal Watersheds: Santa Margarita River Project. Final Report to USEPA Region 9.