Approximately 5,500 hazardous sites across the United States are at risk of coastal flooding by 2100, according to a new study led by researchers from UC Berkeley, UCLA, and the nonprofit Climate Central. The findings, which were published late November in Nature Communications, suggest this could be the reality if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unchecked.
“Flooding from sea level rise is dangerous on its own—but when facilities with hazardous materials are in the path of those floodwaters, the danger multiplies,” said UCLA Public Health professor Lara Cushing, MPH ‘11 Epidemiology; PhD ‘15 Energy and Resources Group. Cushing co-led the study with Rachel Morello-Frosch, a professor in the Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management and the UC Berkeley School of Public Health.
To conduct their study, the researchers identified over 47,600 coastal power plants, sewage treatment facilities, fossil fuel infrastructure, industrial facilities, and former defense sites in all coastal states and Puerto Rico. Sites were determined to be at risk if they are threatened by a 1-in-100-year flood event (a flood with a 1% chance of being equalled or exceeded) projected under two scenarios: one in which greenhouse gas emissions increase through the year 2100, and another in which emissions stabilize shortly after 2100. The methodology was co-developed with an advisory committee of community advocates and public health leaders.
Eleven percent of coastal sites identified by the researchers are at risk of sea level rise-related flooding by 2100 under the high emissions scenario, and nearly 3,800 facilities could flood as soon as 2050. Seven coastal states—Louisiana, Florida, New Jersey, Texas, California, New York, and Massachusetts—could be disproportionately impacted, as they are home to nearly 80% of sites at risk of flooding.
The study also revealed that certain populations are more likely to live near hazardous sites at risk of flooding under a scenario where emissions remain high. Flooding of these sites could result in contaminant releases that pose serious threats to public health. The researchers found that neighborhoods with one or more at-risk facilities have higher proportions of renters, households living in poverty, residents who identify as Hispanic, linguistically isolated households, households without vehicles, seniors, and non-voters than neighborhoods without at-risk facilities.
“Coastal communities, including underserved groups, that are working to fortify their resilience to climate change need access to critical data and resources to plan for the future,” said Morello-Frosch. However, she notes that data and resources from FEMA and NOAA are becoming harder to access, impeding these communities’ efforts to adapt.
Additional UC Berkeley co-authors include Energy and Resources Group alums Nicholas Depsky, PhD ’23, and Seigi Karasaki, PhD ’24.
Read More
- Original UC Berkeley School of Public Health news story
- As Seas Rise, So Do the Risks From Toxic Sites (Inside Climate News)
- Hundreds of California and Bay Area Hazardous Sites Could Face Future Flooding (KQED)
- Thousands of US hazardous sites are at risk of flooding because of sea level rise, study finds (Associated Press)
This article was adapted from material provided by the School of Public Health
