A new open-source modeling tool co-developed by researchers at UC Berkeley’s Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science & Environment provides global policymakers with unprecedented analytical and computational power to achieve environmental and climate goals.
Designed in partnership with the United Nations and numerous countries and supporting organizations, the tool, dubbed Kigali Sim, helps nations formulate policies to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions—including hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) commonly used in refrigeration, air conditioning, and the food system. Kigali Sim debuted on December 5 during the executive committee meeting of the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal Protocol.
“Kigali Sim improves global regulation of highly-potent greenhouse gases such as hydrofluorocarbons,” said lead developer Sam Pottinger, a senior research data scientist at Schmidt DSE (part of UC Berkeley's Rausser College of Natural Resources and the College of Computing, Data Science, and Society). “The tool simulates possible outcomes of policy interventions with greater efficiency and ease than previously possible. Kigali Sim is designed for those without programming expertise to access advanced modeling techniques, including optional AI features, and can work in a web browser.”
Using conservative estimates, Kigali Sim could help a hypothetical, middle-income nation formulate policies that could reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions by about 5% by 2040. For context, this would be the equivalent of the United States cutting half of all agriculture-related emissions.
The 5% estimated reduction would represent around 10% of that country’s target for emissions reductions under the Paris Agreement, given past commitments, long-term goals, and expected cooling pressures. These approximations do not account for additional co-benefits of reductions, including a country’s transition to more sustainable energy use, which will likely yield greater overall environmental benefits.
In order to achieve environmental goals set by the United Nations’ Montreal Protocol, policymakers need more powerful analytical tools to assess consumption trends and evaluate policy interventions. The Montreal Protocol, signed in 1987, is the most successful global environmental treaty in history and is ratified by all UN member states. Historically, the agreement sidestepped a potential catastrophe with the ozone layer by regulating ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases. Since 2016, the treaty’s focus is to phase down the most detrimental greenhouse gases like hydrofluorocarbons. To date the UN’s Multilateral Fund has facilitated more than $4.3 billion to support developing nations (also known as “Article 5” countries) in reducing production and consumption of HCFs and ozone-depleting substances.
