William N. Dennison
World Issues
In a speech in London in 1988 HRH The Prince of Wales said "There is a deep and growing public concern about the threats to our environment but do we really appreciate the serious and urgent challenge which we all face on a global scale, are our political leaders more influenced by the costs of action rather than the concealed costs of inaction? In many instances preventative action needs to be taken now before the inevitable cure would be too drastic to contemplate".
The United Nations Committee on the Environment has drawn attention to the environmental problems still facing mankind. In 1987 it published a list of the various disasters that have recently occurred. The leak from a pesticide factory in Bhopal, India, killed over 2,000 and blinded and injured over 200,000. The Chernobyl nuclear reactor explosion in the Soviet Union caused nuclear fallout across Europe, the long term effects of which have yet to be fully quantified. A warehouse fire in Switzerland caused agricultural chemical solvents and mercury to flow into the Rhine, killing millions of fish and affecting drinking water. Liquid gas tanks exploded in Mexico City killing 1,000 and making thousands homeless. There are regular environmental crises in Africa triggered by drought and flood in which possibly 1M people have died, yet despite this gloomy catalogue, little real progress has been made.
We were warned in 1974 by chemists here at the University of California, and it has since become clear, that chloro-fluoro carbons (CFCs) released into the air can damage the ozone layer. This layer is high in the atmosphere, between 25 and 50 kilometres above the earth, acting as a shield protecting us from certain frequencies of ultraviolet radiation from the sun that can cause skin cancer. CFCs thin the ozone layer so letting more ultra-violet rays through to the earth's surface. Measurements in 1987 indicated that an ozone hole had formed during the Southern Hemisphere's late Winter and early Spring, above the Antarctic, although the reason for ozone depletion in both Polar regions is still poorly understood. The Montreal Agreement in 1988 committed the EC and 20 other countries to reduce the use of CFCs by 50% by 1999, but is this enough?
It has been estimated that the burning of forests releases two gigatons of carbon dioxide per annum putting additional stress on the earth's atmosphere. The amount of Amazon forest burnt down is estimated to have doubled in the last two years, no less than 64,000 square miles went up in smoke (the Amazon forest covers over 3,000,000 square miles) equivalent to 100 volcanoes in eruption. Satellite photographs taken on 24th August 1987 registered over 8,000 separate fires exceeding one square kilometre in extent. Twelve days later on 5th September a dramatic 10% fall was recorded in the Antarctic ozone layer. Some experts say that massive tree planting may be necessary to remove the increasing carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere. In a report published by the US Department of Energy, Gregg Marland, a researcher at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, estimates that new forests covering 7 million square kilometres could absorb all the releases of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. That would mean covering an area the size of the US, less Alaska.
A report by the World Resources Institute used grim language to warn of the damage that acid rain is inflicting on forests in Europe and the U.S.A. "A spectre is haunting Europe and North America, a spectre of widespread forest decline," it declared. "The mass mortality of trees observed across large areas of central and eastern Europe over the past 5 years seems to be accelerating." The main pollutants in acid rain are sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, mainly coming from the combustion of fossil fuels in power stations, and from the exhaust fumes of cars. It is estimated that the number of cars in the world has risen from 38M to over 350M in the past 40 years. Lakes have lost their fish as acidity has increased. Acidity in the soil in some forest areas has increased 5-10 fold. In Germany researchers claim that over 50% of the country's trees have been damaged. In Europe, Britain is still a major contributor to air pollution, but it has recently agreed to cut emissions of sulphur dioxide from power stations and heavy industrial plants from 1980 levels by 60%.
One of NASA's top climate experts, Dr. James Hanson, told the US Congress he was 99% certain that the greenhouse effect was responsible for the drought in the mid-West in 1988. CO2 acts like the glass in a greenhouse letting the sun's rays through and trapping in the heat. Burning fossil fuels emits 5.4BN tonnes per year, increasing annually by 100M tonnes. Burning the forest is estimated to add a further 1.5BN tonnes of CO2 per year - the temperature over the last 100 years is said to have increased by 0.5°. If emission of CO2 into the atmosphere is continued unchecked, it is claimed that it might increase world temperatures by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2030, raising sea level by 8-40 inches (20-100 cms.). A rise of 12 inches (30 cms.) would erode beaches along the US Gulf and the Atlantic coast, 36 inches (90 cms.) would flood one-sixth of Egypt's arable land, and make 8M people homeless, and 15M people in Bangladesh could be added to this list. Climate has changed frequently and in great leaps between cold and warm phases during the last 2.5M years. The transition between these 2 phases has sometimes occurred across a few centuries and sometimes merely over a few decades. During the last interglacial period the West Antarctic ice shield had, for example, disappeared and its melting water raised the sea level by 5-7 metres. On a global scale 80% of world population settled within 50 miles of the shore could be affected.
Politics and the Environment
Increasing public concern centers around the environmentalist who comes in many guises. In West Germany and Japan they stage pitched battles with the riot police to prevent the building of nuclear power stations. In the U.S.A. they picket the World Bank to protest about development aid that encourages the burning of tropical rain forests. On the high seas, "Greenpeace" ships roam like latter-day pirates engaging in skirmishes which they are bound to lose, but which will generate world wide publicity. In Britain however, environmentalists tend to be a gentler breed. We call them nature lovers. The cause is supported by the great and the good, the Royal Family, members of the House of Lords, all the way down to the country parson, and the retired. Love of nature is part of the Englishman's character, or so he likes to think. Our "Green lobbies" love grim statistics, "125,000 miles of British hedgerows have been uprooted", "95% of hay meadows have been lost", "80% of chalk downlands have disappeared", "50% of our marshes have been drained", "40% of our natural woodland has been replanted". Membership of those organisations involved in environmental issues now exceeds 3M, over 5% of the total population, which is greater than the membership of any single political party. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has recently celebrated its centenary with the aim of doubling its membership to over 1M. The British Labour Party had over 8M votes in the 1987 election but has a party membership of only 300,000.
The Central Electricity Generating Board, a State monopoly about to be privatised, the main polluter in producing sulphur dioxide from power stations, is helping to look after the little tern and the Adonis blue butterfly! Some of our large industrial companies now respond generously to fund environmental projects.
This will not counter the increased political influence of the "Greens" who regularly pass resolutions for "non-violent action" and "civil disobedience" to further their aims. In Britain, born as the Ecology Party in the early 70's, they changed their name to the "Green" Party in 1985 and they now have over 7,000 members. The international heroes of the European movement have been the West German "Greens" who made a spectacular breakthrough to win seats in the Bundestag for the first time in 1983. However, unlike their German counterparts who now have 44 seats in Bonn, the British party can only boast 60 seats on Parish Councils and 3 on District Councils, having put up 122 candidates in the last election, won no seats and received only 1.3% of the vote. The Italian "Greens" won 13 Parliamentary seats at their first attempt at a national election and now have 15 seats. There are well established "Green" parties with parliamentary representation in Sweden, 20 seats; Austria, 8 seats; Belgium, 17; Luxembourg, 4; Switzerland, 9 and Finland 4 seats. In the run-up to the Swedish General Election in August 1988, the Greens were for the first time given television time, opinion polls having regularly shown them topping the 4% threshold required. The Swedish General Election in September 1988 gave a comfortable victory to the Social Democrats, the party polled 43% of the total vote with 156 seats; the Greens arrived in the Swedish Parliament for the first time with 5.5% of the polls compared with 1.5% 3 years ago and 20 seats in Parliament, although they won less than had been expected. One of the reasons for the disparity is that the Continental parties have the benefit of proportional representation. However, in spite of their difficulties the British "Greens" do radiate an unquenchable optimism based on the belief that the tide of history is flowing their way.
A Green Consumer Week in 1988 marked the first efforts to mobilise the power of consumers to influence manufacturers and retailers to offer products that do not harm the environment or our health. It advised boycotting fish fingers containing Icelandic fish, avoiding mahogany toilet seats and the use of bat-friendly treatment fluids for wood preservation; a superstore chain has introduced a new environmentally-friendly logo. As people's values change with increasing affluence, is this a trend which retailers can afford to ignore? At the 1998 Conservative Party Conference there were 73 environment motions on the agenda, and the Prime Minister, The Rt. Hon. Margaret Thatcher, described the protection of the environment and the balance of nature as one of the great challenges of the late 20th century, and said that mankind may have unwittingly begun a massive experiment with the system of this planet itself.
In Spain and Portugal there is increasing resistance to the further planting of Eucalyptus, based on the introduction of non-native species and the effects of large scale monoculture on the environment. In Sweden, a country with 50% of its land area covered by trees, hundreds of plant species are said to be disappearing and may well be on the endangered list within a decade or so. Swedish environmentalists are equally alarmed at the loss of ancient forests which are now being felled at an increasing rate and also concerned about mixed broadleaved conifer forest which is being replaced by pure conifer species. For many people in Sweden the long term costs of intensive forestry in terms of irreparable harm to the environment now seem unacceptable. The problem is that Sweden, like several other countries in the natural coniferous belt of the northern hemisphere, depends heavily upon its exports of forest products to earn foreign currency. Public support for environmental organisations is increasing steadily; there are signs that governments and the large forestry companies are beginning to take them seriously and the concessions made to environmental movements are impressive.
The first signs of expression in Soviet public opinion are beginning to emerge. Public concern increased dramatically in the wake of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Environmentalist groups have been among the first to exploit new found freedom of expression to voice criticism about the appalling ecological damage caused by decades of rapid industrialisation and large scale construction projects. At the opening of the Communist Party Conference in 1988, Mr. Gorbachev spoke of the need to protect the environment and ensure rational use of natural resources. A delegate from Komi in the far north of Russia complained of ruthless felling of trees to meet timber demand, and suggested that forests faced extinction within the next 10-20 years. Some element of environmental protection may emerge by encouraging decentralisation of decision-making to local level.
The world conservation strategy, with its aim of maintaining essential ecological processes, preserving genetic diversity and ensuring sustainable utilisation of species and ecosystems, has had an accumulative effect on global issues. The incidence of 'acid rain', damaging forests and eliminating fish life from some takes and waterways, has been regarded by many scientists as the world's most serious problem requiring global cooperation and changes in industrialisation. It may well be overtaken by the threat of ozone depletion in the atmosphere. The use of pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides, is a further issue. Similarly, concern about toxic waste has been focused on the disposal of radioactive nuclear material. No day passes without some reference in the media to these very issues and general apprehension across the world is accelerating, reaching all countries.
It was impossible for anyone to be truly isolated from the effects of the unprecedented change resulting from uncertain oil prices and the world recession in the seventies. The management of change will therefore remain a major task facing individuals, organisations and Governments during the next decade. Changes in science, technology and attitudes towards conservation and the environment, will have an increasing political impact in the "Green Vote". In meeting this challenge we must face the inevitable reality of the growing interdependence of today's world. The public, mainly through the medium of television and radio, is now much more aware of these issues and governments, some begrudgingly, are being spurred into action. In an age of increasing education and instant communications the tide of public opinion will continue to flow in favour of environmental protection. We expect a great deal from those among the younger generation who will soon carry the major political responsibility. We hope that their insistence in saving this world for people will overcome bureaucratic regulations and constraints and political differences. Substantial progress in developing countries will be required if we are to make the change to a reasonably stable world sustaining seven to nine billion people in the next century (2025).
World Economics
In an address to the Royal Geographical Society on Third World Development a senior World Bank Executive stated: "world economics should be rethought in order to incorporate the concept of 'sustainable' long-term use of natural resources - using resources such as forests in a way that did not destroy them for future generations."
The global issues relating to the environment are greatly aggravated by the international debt crisis which squeezes Third World nations to intensify exploitation in their vain attempt to meet their repayment schedules. International cooperation is a precondition for effective action since rich countries will otherwise seek to impose restrictive policies on poor countries without throwing them any alternative lifeline, therefore alongside the crisis of the environment, runs the crisis of debt and under both there runs the crisis of democracy. Whether you are a politician, a businessman, a scientist, an economist, a trade unionist, or indeed a forester like myself, we must all share a common apprehension for the times in which we live. As consumers of the world's major forest resources on a massive scale all of us in the developed world inevitably bear the greater responsibility for the future of mankind.
The Future of the Tropical Rain Forests
Tropical Rain Forests are the world's richest biological system. They are a home for almost half the wild animals, plants, birds and insects known. 25-40% of all modern medicines are derived directly from plants from areas such as the tropical forests - a market in the US worth $10BN (£5.6BN) per annum. These forests are the home for at least 3-5M species. Costa Rica, a tiny country one-fifth the size of Great Britain, alone possesses 8,000 plant species compared with only 1,443 in Britain. More and more tropical moist forest species are emerging as economically valuable. Castanospermum and related species are found mainly in the tropics and show some promise in the hunt for a treatment to combat the AIDS virus. These species are also essential to the economic and social well being of rural people in developing tropical countries, yet they are being degraded and destroyed at an increasing and alarming rate. Properly used and managed, the tropical forests constitute a massive potential source of energy, a powerful tool in the fight to end hunger, a strong basis for generating economic wealth and social development, and a storehouse of genetic resources to meet future needs. World wide at least 40% of these forests have now been lost in the last 30 years. Of the world forest cover extending to more than 4,000M hectares or one-third of the earth's land surface, 58% is in the developing countries and is mostly tropical. Tropical rain forests in a closed forest condition have evolved over many thousands of years and now cover 900M hectares. Although 70 countries have these forests, over half the area is found in just three - Brazil 33%, Zaire 10%, and Indonesia 10%.
The UK Tropical Timber Trade claims that a reduction in the hardwood trade worldwide will do little to solve the problem of forest destruction and suggests that the basic problem is population increase and the insatiable demand for land for food production. In Indonesia where 80% of the extracted wood is fuelwood only 16% is processed from which 7M cu.m. of sawn timber is produced, only 2M cu.m. is exported out of a total harvest of 149M cu.m. Export earnings estimated at US$331M (£184M) are essential for the economic wellbeing of the country. Each year 7.5M hectares of closed forest and 3.8M hectares of open forest are cleared in the tropics, in total equivalent to clearing all of California's forest every eighteen months. Nearly half these forests are cleared to make way for shifting cultivation by landless farmers operating a system of slash and burn. More than half the population of the developing world, some 2,800M people, will either be short of fuelwood or will be caught in this destructive cycle of deforestation, fuelwood scarcity, poverty and malnutrition. Who is to blame? We are all to blame in one way or another. In industrial countries consumer demand for rain forest resources and inappropriate aid programmes compound the problems caused by entrenched poverty, unequal land distribution, corruption and rising populations in the tropics. The rain forests will only be saved if shifting cultivation can be contained by less destructive land use and agro-forestry systems and at least 10%, that is over 100M hectares, is protected in reserves. It has been suggested that the protection of the rain forests will cost $5.4BN (£3BN) over a 10-year period.
International cooperation, through the International Tropical Timber Agreement 1983, came into force on 1st April 1985. On the 29th July 1986 the International Tropical Timber Council (ITTC) decided to locate its headquarters in Yokahama and appointed Dr. Freezailah bin Che Yeom (Malaysia) the first Executive Director. The organisation became operational at its headquarters in January 1987. The main objective is to provide a forum for consultation and cooperation between tropical timber producing and consuming countries under programmes of sustainable utilisation of tropical forest products. The agreement also has the objective to work for the conservation of the tropical forests and their genetic resources and for the maintenance of the ecological balance in tropical forest regions. ITTO has 42 members, 18 of which are producers of tropical timber and together have 70% of closed tropical forest and account for 80% of tropical log production. The problem, well illustrated in the Tropical Forestry Action Plan prepared by FAO in cooperation with the World Resources Institute, World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme, is how to preserve this unique resource while meeting, so far as possible, expanding human demands. It is an unprecedented initiative to foster more regional utilisation through wise management and conservation. Less than 3 years after it was launched it is being used in over 50 tropical countries to develop national forestry policies and strategies and to identify priorities for action whilst in 1987 the donor community doubled the funds allocated to these efforts to over $1BN (£0.6BN).
Mr. Bob Hasan, Chairman of Indonesia's Wood Panel Association, has proposed that Indonesia should switch from raw material supply from natural forests to plantations. Indonesia is the world's largest supplier of tropical wood products and accounts for 80% of the world's plywood trade. The country's forests, which contain the world's richest stands of commercial timber, were estimated at 114M hectares in 1981 - 10% of the world's remaining rain forest. Only the Amazon Basin of Brazil is more extensive. The UN estimates that Indonesia is losing forests at the rate of 1M hectares per year, more than the UK has planted in the 40 years since the end of the Second World War. To help take the pressure off the natural forest, Indonesia's plantation programme targets new plantations of 4.4M hectares by the year 2000 at a cost of $4BN (£2.2BN).
However to date only 30,000 hectares have been established. Some might claim that to replace scarce valuable rain forest with fast growing species would be like selling your Rolls Royce to get 5 VWs! The UK Timber Trade Federation in September 1988 proposed a surcharge on tropical timber imported into Britain to raise $32M (£17.8M) a year to help save the rain forests in the producer countries. In 1987 tropical wood accounted for only $671M (£373M) of British imports; it is made up of sawn timber, plywood and veneers - that compares with non-tropical timbers that accounted for $2.5BN (£1.4BN) in 1987.
How do we compensate tropical countries prepared to take large areas of forest out of circulation, thus foregoing revenue and other benefits? How can we assist developing countries to meet their domestic fuelwood demand from sources other than rain forests? How can we finance the rapid expansion of compensatory plantations of fast-growing industrial and fuelwood species? Can we win the support of the world's financial centres - New York, London, Tokyo, etc. - to fund super-tree plantations? What alternatives exist for the expansion of the agricultural frontier when over 200M people live in the tropical rain forest areas and populations are expanding at 3% per annum? The Tropical Forestry Action Plan is praiseworthy; it is the centrepiece of a new coordinated approach to solving a crisis. It offers the opportunity to improve aid coordination and to stimulate institutional reforms and new initiatives for a concerted global effort. What is needed is widespread political commitment to strategies for re-afforestation and forest management, and here the role of the mass media in informing and influencing public opinion on matters of scientific and technological interest plays an important role. ITTO's current budget runs to about (£1.7M) of which $2M (£1.1M) comes from Japan, $1M (£0.5M) from Switzerland, $600,000 (£333,333) from the Netherlands and $11,000 (£6,111) from non-Governmental organisations. The USA contributed only $6,000 (£3,333) in 1987 and increased this to $53,000 (£29,444) in 1988, but this is still only half of what is considered a full funding commitment. In 1988 the World Wide Fund for Nature launched a campaign to raise (£2.2M) and match official funding to save the Korup forest in the Cameroons, Africa's oldest rain forest over 30M years old with over 400 tree species and exceeding the size of Greater London.
Forestry sector review missions have been completed for the Cameroons, the Dominican Republic, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea and Peru, and in 1987 31 projects were submitted, 16 projects were approved and 12 are in various stages of implementation.