World Issues

In a speech in London in 1988 HRH The Prince of Wales said "There is a deep and growing public concern about the threats to our environment but do we really appreciate the serious and urgent challenge which we all face on a global scale, are our political leaders more influenced by the costs of action rather than the concealed costs of inaction? In many instances preventative action needs to be taken now before the inevitable cure would be too drastic to contemplate".

The United Nations Committee on the Environment has drawn attention to the environmental problems still facing mankind. In 1987 it published a list of the various disasters that have recently occurred. The leak from a pesticide factory in Bhopal, India, killed over 2,000 and blinded and injured over 200,000. The Chernobyl nuclear reactor explosion in the Soviet Union caused nuclear fallout across Europe, the long term effects of which have yet to be fully quantified. A warehouse fire in Switzerland caused agricultural chemical solvents and mercury to flow into the Rhine, killing millions of fish and affecting drinking water. Liquid gas tanks exploded in Mexico City killing 1,000 and making thousands homeless. There are regular environmental crises in Africa triggered by drought and flood in which possibly 1M people have died, yet despite this gloomy catalogue, little real progress has been made.

We were warned in 1974 by chemists here at the University of California, and it has since become clear, that chloro-fluoro carbons (CFCs) released into the air can damage the ozone layer. This layer is high in the atmosphere, between 25 and 50 kilometres above the earth, acting as a shield protecting us from certain frequencies of ultraviolet radiation from the sun that can cause skin cancer. CFCs thin the ozone layer so letting more ultra-violet rays through to the earth's surface. Measurements in 1987 indicated that an ozone hole had formed during the Southern Hemisphere's late Winter and early Spring, above the Antarctic, although the reason for ozone depletion in both Polar regions is still poorly understood. The Montreal Agreement in 1988 committed the EC and 20 other countries to reduce the use of CFCs by 50% by 1999, but is this enough?

It has been estimated that the burning of forests releases two gigatons of carbon dioxide per annum putting additional stress on the earth's atmosphere. The amount of Amazon forest burnt down is estimated to have doubled in the last two years, no less than 64,000 square miles went up in smoke (the Amazon forest covers over 3,000,000 square miles) equivalent to 100 volcanoes in eruption. Satellite photographs taken on 24th August 1987 registered over 8,000 separate fires exceeding one square kilometre in extent. Twelve days later on 5th September a dramatic 10% fall was recorded in the Antarctic ozone layer. Some experts say that massive tree planting may be necessary to remove the increasing carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere. In a report published by the US Department of Energy, Gregg Marland, a researcher at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, estimates that new forests covering 7 million square kilometres could absorb all the releases of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. That would mean covering an area the size of the US, less Alaska.

A report by the World Resources Institute used grim language to warn of the damage that acid rain is inflicting on forests in Europe and the U.S.A. "A spectre is haunting Europe and North America, a spectre of widespread forest decline," it declared. "The mass mortality of trees observed across large areas of central and eastern Europe over the past 5 years seems to be accelerating." The main pollutants in acid rain are sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, mainly coming from the combustion of fossil fuels in power stations, and from the exhaust fumes of cars. It is estimated that the number of cars in the world has risen from 38M to over 350M in the past 40 years. Lakes have lost their fish as acidity has increased. Acidity in the soil in some forest areas has increased 5-10 fold. In Germany researchers claim that over 50% of the country's trees have been damaged. In Europe, Britain is still a major contributor to air pollution, but it has recently agreed to cut emissions of sulphur dioxide from power stations and heavy industrial plants from 1980 levels by 60%.

One of NASA's top climate experts, Dr. James Hanson, told the US Congress he was 99% certain that the greenhouse effect was responsible for the drought in the mid-West in 1988. CO2 acts like the glass in a greenhouse letting the sun's rays through and trapping in the heat. Burning fossil fuels emits 5.4BN tonnes per year, increasing annually by 100M tonnes. Burning the forest is estimated to add a further 1.5BN tonnes of CO2 per year - the temperature over the last 100 years is said to have increased by 0.5°. If emission of CO2 into the atmosphere is continued unchecked, it is claimed that it might increase world temperatures by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2030, raising sea level by 8-40 inches (20-100 cms.). A rise of 12 inches (30 cms.) would erode beaches along the US Gulf and the Atlantic coast, 36 inches (90 cms.) would flood one-sixth of Egypt's arable land, and make 8M people homeless, and 15M people in Bangladesh could be added to this list. Climate has changed frequently and in great leaps between cold and warm phases during the last 2.5M years. The transition between these 2 phases has sometimes occurred across a few centuries and sometimes merely over a few decades. During the last interglacial period the West Antarctic ice shield had, for example, disappeared and its melting water raised the sea level by 5-7 metres. On a global scale 80% of world population settled within 50 miles of the shore could be affected.


Politics and the Environment

Increasing public concern centers around the environmentalist who comes in many guises. In West Germany and Japan they stage pitched battles with the riot police to prevent the building of nuclear power stations. In the U.S.A. they picket the World Bank to protest about development aid that encourages the burning of tropical rain forests. On the high seas, "Greenpeace" ships roam like latter-day pirates engaging in skirmishes which they are bound to lose, but which will generate world wide publicity. In Britain however, environmentalists tend to be a gentler breed. We call them nature lovers. The cause is supported by the great and the good, the Royal Family, members of the House of Lords, all the way down to the country parson, and the retired. Love of nature is part of the Englishman's character, or so he likes to think. Our "Green lobbies" love grim statistics, "125,000 miles of British hedgerows have been uprooted", "95% of hay meadows have been lost", "80% of chalk downlands have disappeared", "50% of our marshes have been drained", "40% of our natural woodland has been replanted". Membership of those organisations involved in environmental issues now exceeds 3M, over 5% of the total population, which is greater than the membership of any single political party. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has recently celebrated its centenary with the aim of doubling its membership to over 1M. The British Labour Party had over 8M votes in the 1987 election but has a party membership of only 300,000.

The Central Electricity Generating Board, a State monopoly about to be privatised, the main polluter in producing sulphur dioxide from power stations, is helping to look after the little tern and the Adonis blue butterfly! Some of our large industrial companies now respond generously to fund environmental projects.

This will not counter the increased political influence of the "Greens" who regularly pass resolutions for "non-violent action" and "civil disobedience" to further their aims. In Britain, born as the Ecology Party in the early 70's, they changed their name to the "Green" Party in 1985 and they now have over 7,000 members. The international heroes of the European movement have been the West German "Greens" who made a spectacular breakthrough to win seats in the Bundestag for the first time in 1983. However, unlike their German counterparts who now have 44 seats in Bonn, the British party can only boast 60 seats on Parish Councils and 3 on District Councils, having put up 122 candidates in the last election, won no seats and received only 1.3% of the vote. The Italian "Greens" won 13 Parliamentary seats at their first attempt at a national election and now have 15 seats. There are well established "Green" parties with parliamentary representation in Sweden, 20 seats; Austria, 8 seats; Belgium, 17; Luxembourg, 4; Switzerland, 9 and Finland 4 seats. In the run-up to the Swedish General Election in August 1988, the Greens were for the first time given television time, opinion polls having regularly shown them topping the 4% threshold required. The Swedish General Election in September 1988 gave a comfortable victory to the Social Democrats, the party polled 43% of the total vote with 156 seats; the Greens arrived in the Swedish Parliament for the first time with 5.5% of the polls compared with 1.5% 3 years ago and 20 seats in Parliament, although they won less than had been expected. One of the reasons for the disparity is that the Continental parties have the benefit of proportional representation. However, in spite of their difficulties the British "Greens" do radiate an unquenchable optimism based on the belief that the tide of history is flowing their way.

A Green Consumer Week in 1988 marked the first efforts to mobilise the power of consumers to influence manufacturers and retailers to offer products that do not harm the environment or our health. It advised boycotting fish fingers containing Icelandic fish, avoiding mahogany toilet seats and the use of bat-friendly treatment fluids for wood preservation; a superstore chain has introduced a new environmentally-friendly logo. As people's values change with increasing affluence, is this a trend which retailers can afford to ignore? At the 1998 Conservative Party Conference there were 73 environment motions on the agenda, and the Prime Minister, The Rt. Hon. Margaret Thatcher, described the protection of the environment and the balance of nature as one of the great challenges of the late 20th century, and said that mankind may have unwittingly begun a massive experiment with the system of this planet itself.

In Spain and Portugal there is increasing resistance to the further planting of Eucalyptus, based on the introduction of non-native species and the effects of large scale monoculture on the environment. In Sweden, a country with 50% of its land area covered by trees, hundreds of plant species are said to be disappearing and may well be on the endangered list within a decade or so. Swedish environmentalists are equally alarmed at the loss of ancient forests which are now being felled at an increasing rate and also concerned about mixed broadleaved conifer forest which is being replaced by pure conifer species. For many people in Sweden the long term costs of intensive forestry in terms of irreparable harm to the environment now seem unacceptable. The problem is that Sweden, like several other countries in the natural coniferous belt of the northern hemisphere, depends heavily upon its exports of forest products to earn foreign currency. Public support for environmental organisations is increasing steadily; there are signs that governments and the large forestry companies are beginning to take them seriously and the concessions made to environmental movements are impressive.

The first signs of expression in Soviet public opinion are beginning to emerge. Public concern increased dramatically in the wake of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Environmentalist groups have been among the first to exploit new found freedom of expression to voice criticism about the appalling ecological damage caused by decades of rapid industrialisation and large scale construction projects. At the opening of the Communist Party Conference in 1988, Mr. Gorbachev spoke of the need to protect the environment and ensure rational use of natural resources. A delegate from Komi in the far north of Russia complained of ruthless felling of trees to meet timber demand, and suggested that forests faced extinction within the next 10-20 years. Some element of environmental protection may emerge by encouraging decentralisation of decision-making to local level.

The world conservation strategy, with its aim of maintaining essential ecological processes, preserving genetic diversity and ensuring sustainable utilisation of species and ecosystems, has had an accumulative effect on global issues. The incidence of 'acid rain', damaging forests and eliminating fish life from some takes and waterways, has been regarded by many scientists as the world's most serious problem requiring global cooperation and changes in industrialisation. It may well be overtaken by the threat of ozone depletion in the atmosphere. The use of pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides, is a further issue. Similarly, concern about toxic waste has been focused on the disposal of radioactive nuclear material. No day passes without some reference in the media to these very issues and general apprehension across the world is accelerating, reaching all countries.

It was impossible for anyone to be truly isolated from the effects of the unprecedented change resulting from uncertain oil prices and the world recession in the seventies. The management of change will therefore remain a major task facing individuals, organisations and Governments during the next decade. Changes in science, technology and attitudes towards conservation and the environment, will have an increasing political impact in the "Green Vote". In meeting this challenge we must face the inevitable reality of the growing interdependence of today's world. The public, mainly through the medium of television and radio, is now much more aware of these issues and governments, some begrudgingly, are being spurred into action. In an age of increasing education and instant communications the tide of public opinion will continue to flow in favour of environmental protection. We expect a great deal from those among the younger generation who will soon carry the major political responsibility. We hope that their insistence in saving this world for people will overcome bureaucratic regulations and constraints and political differences. Substantial progress in developing countries will be required if we are to make the change to a reasonably stable world sustaining seven to nine billion people in the next century (2025).


World Economics

In an address to the Royal Geographical Society on Third World Development a senior World Bank Executive stated: "world economics should be rethought in order to incorporate the concept of 'sustainable' long-term use of natural resources - using resources such as forests in a way that did not destroy them for future generations."

The global issues relating to the environment are greatly aggravated by the international debt crisis which squeezes Third World nations to intensify exploitation in their vain attempt to meet their repayment schedules. International cooperation is a precondition for effective action since rich countries will otherwise seek to impose restrictive policies on poor countries without throwing them any alternative lifeline, therefore alongside the crisis of the environment, runs the crisis of debt and under both there runs the crisis of democracy. Whether you are a politician, a businessman, a scientist, an economist, a trade unionist, or indeed a forester like myself, we must all share a common apprehension for the times in which we live. As consumers of the world's major forest resources on a massive scale all of us in the developed world inevitably bear the greater responsibility for the future of mankind.


The Future of the Tropical Rain Forests

Tropical Rain Forests are the world's richest biological system. They are a home for almost half the wild animals, plants, birds and insects known. 25-40% of all modern medicines are derived directly from plants from areas such as the tropical forests - a market in the US worth $10BN (£5.6BN) per annum. These forests are the home for at least 3-5M species. Costa Rica, a tiny country one-fifth the size of Great Britain, alone possesses 8,000 plant species compared with only 1,443 in Britain. More and more tropical moist forest species are emerging as economically valuable. Castanospermum and related species are found mainly in the tropics and show some promise in the hunt for a treatment to combat the AIDS virus. These species are also essential to the economic and social well being of rural people in developing tropical countries, yet they are being degraded and destroyed at an increasing and alarming rate. Properly used and managed, the tropical forests constitute a massive potential source of energy, a powerful tool in the fight to end hunger, a strong basis for generating economic wealth and social development, and a storehouse of genetic resources to meet future needs. World wide at least 40% of these forests have now been lost in the last 30 years. Of the world forest cover extending to more than 4,000M hectares or one-third of the earth's land surface, 58% is in the developing countries and is mostly tropical. Tropical rain forests in a closed forest condition have evolved over many thousands of years and now cover 900M hectares. Although 70 countries have these forests, over half the area is found in just three - Brazil 33%, Zaire 10%, and Indonesia 10%.

The UK Tropical Timber Trade claims that a reduction in the hardwood trade worldwide will do little to solve the problem of forest destruction and suggests that the basic problem is population increase and the insatiable demand for land for food production. In Indonesia where 80% of the extracted wood is fuelwood only 16% is processed from which 7M cu.m. of sawn timber is produced, only 2M cu.m. is exported out of a total harvest of 149M cu.m. Export earnings estimated at US$331M (£184M) are essential for the economic wellbeing of the country. Each year 7.5M hectares of closed forest and 3.8M hectares of open forest are cleared in the tropics, in total equivalent to clearing all of California's forest every eighteen months. Nearly half these forests are cleared to make way for shifting cultivation by landless farmers operating a system of slash and burn. More than half the population of the developing world, some 2,800M people, will either be short of fuelwood or will be caught in this destructive cycle of deforestation, fuelwood scarcity, poverty and malnutrition. Who is to blame? We are all to blame in one way or another. In industrial countries consumer demand for rain forest resources and inappropriate aid programmes compound the problems caused by entrenched poverty, unequal land distribution, corruption and rising populations in the tropics. The rain forests will only be saved if shifting cultivation can be contained by less destructive land use and agro-forestry systems and at least 10%, that is over 100M hectares, is protected in reserves. It has been suggested that the protection of the rain forests will cost $5.4BN (£3BN) over a 10-year period.

International cooperation, through the International Tropical Timber Agreement 1983, came into force on 1st April 1985. On the 29th July 1986 the International Tropical Timber Council (ITTC) decided to locate its headquarters in Yokahama and appointed Dr. Freezailah bin Che Yeom (Malaysia) the first Executive Director. The organisation became operational at its headquarters in January 1987. The main objective is to provide a forum for consultation and cooperation between tropical timber producing and consuming countries under programmes of sustainable utilisation of tropical forest products. The agreement also has the objective to work for the conservation of the tropical forests and their genetic resources and for the maintenance of the ecological balance in tropical forest regions. ITTO has 42 members, 18 of which are producers of tropical timber and together have 70% of closed tropical forest and account for 80% of tropical log production. The problem, well illustrated in the Tropical Forestry Action Plan prepared by FAO in cooperation with the World Resources Institute, World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme, is how to preserve this unique resource while meeting, so far as possible, expanding human demands. It is an unprecedented initiative to foster more regional utilisation through wise management and conservation. Less than 3 years after it was launched it is being used in over 50 tropical countries to develop national forestry policies and strategies and to identify priorities for action whilst in 1987 the donor community doubled the funds allocated to these efforts to over $1BN (£0.6BN).

Mr. Bob Hasan, Chairman of Indonesia's Wood Panel Association, has proposed that Indonesia should switch from raw material supply from natural forests to plantations. Indonesia is the world's largest supplier of tropical wood products and accounts for 80% of the world's plywood trade. The country's forests, which contain the world's richest stands of commercial timber, were estimated at 114M hectares in 1981 - 10% of the world's remaining rain forest. Only the Amazon Basin of Brazil is more extensive. The UN estimates that Indonesia is losing forests at the rate of 1M hectares per year, more than the UK has planted in the 40 years since the end of the Second World War. To help take the pressure off the natural forest, Indonesia's plantation programme targets new plantations of 4.4M hectares by the year 2000 at a cost of $4BN (£2.2BN).

However to date only 30,000 hectares have been established. Some might claim that to replace scarce valuable rain forest with fast growing species would be like selling your Rolls Royce to get 5 VWs! The UK Timber Trade Federation in September 1988 proposed a surcharge on tropical timber imported into Britain to raise $32M (£17.8M) a year to help save the rain forests in the producer countries. In 1987 tropical wood accounted for only $671M (£373M) of British imports; it is made up of sawn timber, plywood and veneers - that compares with non-tropical timbers that accounted for $2.5BN (£1.4BN) in 1987.

How do we compensate tropical countries prepared to take large areas of forest out of circulation, thus foregoing revenue and other benefits? How can we assist developing countries to meet their domestic fuelwood demand from sources other than rain forests? How can we finance the rapid expansion of compensatory plantations of fast-growing industrial and fuelwood species? Can we win the support of the world's financial centres - New York, London, Tokyo, etc. - to fund super-tree plantations? What alternatives exist for the expansion of the agricultural frontier when over 200M people live in the tropical rain forest areas and populations are expanding at 3% per annum? The Tropical Forestry Action Plan is praiseworthy; it is the centrepiece of a new coordinated approach to solving a crisis. It offers the opportunity to improve aid coordination and to stimulate institutional reforms and new initiatives for a concerted global effort. What is needed is widespread political commitment to strategies for re-afforestation and forest management, and here the role of the mass media in informing and influencing public opinion on matters of scientific and technological interest plays an important role. ITTO's current budget runs to about (£1.7M) of which $2M (£1.1M) comes from Japan, $1M (£0.5M) from Switzerland, $600,000 (£333,333) from the Netherlands and $11,000 (£6,111) from non-Governmental organisations. The USA contributed only $6,000 (£3,333) in 1987 and increased this to $53,000 (£29,444) in 1988, but this is still only half of what is considered a full funding commitment. In 1988 the World Wide Fund for Nature launched a campaign to raise (£2.2M) and match official funding to save the Korup forest in the Cameroons, Africa's oldest rain forest over 30M years old with over 400 tree species and exceeding the size of Greater London.

Forestry sector review missions have been completed for the Cameroons, the Dominican Republic, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea and Peru, and in 1987 31 projects were submitted, 16 projects were approved and 12 are in various stages of implementation.


The Future of the Boreal Forest

The broad band of coniferous forest encircling the globe between about 45° and 70° north, stretching from Canada in the west through Scandinavia to Russia in the east, and covering 1,500,000M hectares is known as the Boreal Coniferous Forest. Although Sweden accounts for only about 1.5% of the total boreal forest zone it has a high level of forest per capita - 2.68 hectares - and therefore the controversy over forestry practices in Sweden is important in an international context. In many ways Sweden is ahead of other nations in its intensification of forest use, having had a much longer history of commercial forestry. What is happening in Sweden today could be a foretaste of what will happen to the boreal forest as a whole in the next century. The status of coniferous forests in the different countries of the boreal zone varies greatly and is a reflection of both their history and their geography. In Sweden the Government recognised the problem of deforestation at the end of the nineteenth century and introduced tough new laws obliging foresters to replace the trees they felled. State involvement is not confined to forest lands but also extends to the paper and pulp industries. In the 1970's the Swedish Government began a drastic programme of modernisation in these long-established industries which left them leaner and fitter to compete in the world market.

The situation is very different in Canada where large scale logging began only in the early nineteenth century and where the forests are far more extensive. Canada's forest products industry, having recently returned to profitability after an extended spell in the financial doldrums, is facing increasingly vigorous attacks from environmentalists. The main areas of concern include the findings of an independent enquiry that accuses the forest industry of poor forest management and high volumes of wastage. There is opposition by environmentalists to the construction of a logging road into British Columbia's Steen River Valley where Fletcher Challenge have been seeking to obtain access since the early 1970's. A Government report has also urged nine kraft pulp mills in the Province of Ontario to act quickly to cut their daily discharge of 33 tonnes of chlorinated chemical contaminants. Finally "Greenpeace", the environmental group, is reported to be stepping up pressure to eliminate dioxins from pulp mill effluents - "The levels of dioxin being found near pulp mills suggest a public health emergency in North America".

Canada is now reaching the sort of crisis point that the Swedes faced a century ago with the depletion of the most easily accessible regions. The Canadian approach to forestry has always been to abandon felled areas and trust in natural regeneration. This is a method that rarely works in the boreal zone unless regeneration is regarded as a very long term process. Only in the past decade or so has Canada begun to recognise the need to replant and manage its forest resource, and even now its efforts at silviculture are considered inadequate by many foresters. It is to be hoped that the 15% timber export tax introduced in 1987 will be reinvested in forest renewal. Because of the pressure on easily accessible forest areas, conservationists in Canada fear that they will eat into the rich natural habitats of the national parks.

The U.S. has a much smaller share of the boreal forest zone than Canada yet many of the issues being raised there are the same. Of the other Western Nations Finland has the best record of combining modern forestry with conservation, although it too has problems. The forest conditions in Finland are generally poor with 66% of its land area under forest and wood is now both scarce and expensive. Raw materials make up 70% of the cost of pulp produced in Finland compared with just 33% in Canada. The Finnish Government has responded to the challenge of making its forest pay by directing the paper industry towards much higher quality papers while the greater added value compensates for the high costs of raw materials. They have also made large investments in the U.K. wood processing industry based on an increasing domestic wood resource, in order to establish their long term markets.

The largest share of the boreal forest zone lies in the Soviet Union which has nearly 8M square kilometres of forest. The Russians have always felt that the forest is inexhaustible, their forestry practices reflect this view, 30% to 50% of the timber cut is wasted. Several regions that were heavily forested until recently are now denuded including Buryatia to the cast of Lake Baikal. The traditional Russian approach to forestry does not treat the timber as a renewable resource, forestry workers set up temporary bases and remove all the worthwhile timber and then move on, not expecting to return to the same area, so there is little concern for conservation. The State, committed to forestry, recognises the need for more careful exploitation of the forestry resource but there is at present a large gap between theory and practice. One outcome of Mikhail Gorbachev's "perestroika" may be to bring logging under greater control!

Some observers say that the current imbalance in wood and wood products' supply and demand in the Peoples' Republic of China will not only be crucial in the country's struggle for economic development but may also affect the pattern of trade in forest products throughout the world. It is now clear that reafforestation claims were confused and exaggerated and that overall survival in many large planting schemes was probably no higher than 10-20%. A recent article in the China Economic Daily foresees continuing imbalance of supply and demand to the year 2040, and well beyond that date, unless strict measures are adopted to curb felling and to protect newly planted areas. It indicates a decline in forest cover from 12.7% in 1978 to 12% in 1981 and a fall in reserves of standing timber of 850M cu.m. Within ten years or so two-thirds of all forestry regions in China will have no more production capacity. With an anticipated rise in per capita consumption of forest products from 0.056 cu.m. in 1958 to 0.34 cu.m. by 1990, there would appear to be an increasing reliance on wood imports.

The most obvious method of easing the pressure on the world's forests, in addition to more planting, would be a worldwide increase in the price of timber products coupled with a greater degree of forest land management on a macro-basis ensuring the protection of large and small island forest areas linked by managed corridors of uncut forest particularly following water courses. This practice may go some way towards bringing commercial forest management and conservation more closely together for the future of mankind.


Future World Demand for Wood

In 1983 world wood removals exceeded some 3,000M cu.m. for the first time. Fuelwood accounted for just over half of the total, with the remainder being industrial wood converted into lumber, plywood, paper and other products. The developing world consumes 75% of all fuelwood while the developed nations take 85% of all industrial wood removals although the vast majority of wood harvested from natural forests is consumed in the country of origin. Wood in the form of logs, lumber and other timber products is one of the most important primary commodities in international trade exceeding $100BN (£55.6BN) per annum (imports and exports), about 3% of total world trade. Only about (£4.4BN) of this originates in developing countries. Their advantage lies in their ability to produce wood quickly and at about one-third of the cost of the industrial countries. However, true comparative advantage depends on the location in relation to the market. The EC and Japan will continue to be major deficit areas and may well be joined by China before the end of the century.

A number of authoritative forecasts including those provided by the U.N. Food & Agricultural Organisation (FAO) suggest that by the year 2000 wood demand would be either approaching or slightly exceeding the level of maximum sustainable removals and conclude that there will be considerable strains on supplies. Quality softwoods will be in short supply from natural forests and there will be a swing to hardwoods in the smallwood market. Tropical deforestation mainly resulting from shifting cultivation and rising industrial wood needs in the developed nations will limit the volume of more highly priced tropical hardwoods available to the world market. Environmental groups in Indonesia claim that every year there is a loss of about 1M hectares of forest. Leading importers, such as Western Europe and Japan, will be especially vulnerable to shortages and increased prices in these circumstances. A number of major uncertainties about future demand fog the crystal ball. When, if ever, will the paperless office arrive and cause a major structural change in the pattern of consumption of pulp and paper products? Will this be offset by the development of the chemical uses of wood? What effect will new developments in housing construction have on demand for solid wood products? How rapidly will the one billion citizens of the Peoples' Republic of China increase their appetite for industrial wood imports? What will happen to the level of Japanese imports which currently accounts for 16% of all forest product imports?

The FAO European Forestry Commission predicts that the consumption of timber products will increase at a rate of between 0.5% and 3% per annum to the year 2000 with the strongest growth in the paper and board sectors and with Europe remaining a large net importer. In a World Bank Forestry Study by Ewing and Chalk, published in May 1988, continued growth in the demand for forest products was forecast, particularly in the developing countries where major investments in new production capacity would be required. The demand for sawnwood has generally grown at less than the overall rate of economic growth in the past, but the demand for wood-based panels and paper has exceeded economic growth and this is expected to continue. Projections imply an average growth rate of 1% for sawnwood, 2.3% for wood based panels and 2.9% for paper and paper board. To build new capacity to provide this additional production is estimated to require an average annual investment of some US$15BN (8.3BN) of which about 90% will be for pulp and paper. The price of newsprint continued to rise in 1988 and is set to increase further on 1 March of this year to $800 (£445) a tonne. Consumption in the UK rose by about 7%, well above the average growth rate of 2.5%. Demand was strong in North America with the Olympic Games and the Presidential Election helping. Three newsprint mills are proposed in France each with Nordic involvement. It is for the experts to fit the answers to these questions into future demand scenarios for the different product groups and markets, but whatever the result it can be assumed that in spite of rising self-sufficiency in Britain and Europe we will still fall so far short of total demand that the changes in any of these areas will have little impact on the domestic production from existing forest areas and Britain in particular will remain a large market for exporters.


Prospects for World Wood Supplies

The prospects for future industrial wood supplies will be just as uncertain as those for demand. Assessing the extent of potentially extractable industrial wood supplies is fraught with difficulties, especially when it comes to quantifying such factors as forest decline, accessibility, location of forests relative to markets and transport routes, the steepness of mountain slopes, the quality of the wood resources contained in forests and the withdrawal of areas from production for reasons of wilderness and conservation. There will probably be no major new sources of wood supplies available from Northern hemisphere natural temperate forests in the foreseeable future. About 21% of the world's forest resource is coniferous, supplying about 70% of world industrial timber. The USSR has 57% of all closed conifer forests in the world and although theoretically it could sustain a considerable increase in removals, difficulties in extraction and lack of infrastructure and increasing internal demand make it unlikely that supplies from the distant forests of Siberia will substantially increase in the near future. The USA, with 10% of the world's closed forests, has had significant areas of publicly owned forests taken out of productive use and classified as wilderness areas and is increasingly dependent on timber supplies from the Southern forests. The same could possibly happen in Canada and other countries. There is, however, a prospect of new supplies coming on stream from the maturing fast-growing plantations that thrive in the warmer regions of the Southern hemisphere.

Intensive forest plantations, estimated to cover less than 100M hectares out of a total commercial forest area of 2,864M hectares, have been generally considered to have a major role in future world wood production because the constant high temperatures and uniform rainfall of the humid tropics provide excellent tree growing conditions. Growth rates for plantations can be ten times those of managed natural tropical moist forests and so the focus in recent decades has been on expanding the area of plantations rather than on introducing natural forest management in the humid tropics. It is argued that concentrating timber production in relatively small areas of plantations is economically more efficient and could help indirectly to reduce deforestation rates by reducing the access of farmers to previously uncleared natural forests. A study by Grainger in 1988, covering thirty countries, suggested that high grade hardwood plantations covered an area of 1.3M hectares in 1980 but even so accounted for less than one-fifth of the total area of tropical forest plantations. He claimed that production from these plantations would not be significant until 1996 when it would reach 3.5M cu.m. per annum, but even by the year 2001 it would still be less than 3% of the 1980 removals of tropical hardwoods from natural forests. These projections indicate that the hardwood plantations will supplement, but not replace, removals from natural tropical moist forests.

Man-made plantations could lead to a diversification of world wood supplies, involving countries like New Zealand, Chile, Brazil and South Africa which have invested heavily in plantations in the last few decades. The boom in Chile's forestry industry suggests that the sector will be one of the most important in the Chilean economy in the future. In 1987 forestry exports reached $530M (£294M), up from $370M (£206M) in 1986 and by the year 2000 could approach $1BN (£0.56BN). Chile's forestry industry will need between $3BN (£1.7BN) and $3.5BN (£1.9BN) in new investments by the end of the century just to process the timber expected to be cut by that date. About $1.7BN (£0.9BN) has already been committed, mostly to cellulose projects. The Chileans intend moving towards more value added exports such as furniture, packing cases and mouldings. Currently about 75,000 hectares are expected to be reafforested annually and the country should have 1.8M hectares planted by the year 2000. Chile also has 7.6M hectares of native forest which has been made available for exploitation. As much as 16% of the country's territory could produce timber. Chilean environmentalists have decried the destruction of the country's beautiful native forests. Chile has exported both pulpwood and woodchips to Scandinavian countries at low prices. However, it is still questionable whether fast-growing tropical plantations, more vulnerable to disease, will be able to provide wood of sufficient quality and quantity to satisfy the needs of the world market and whether the investment will be available in what some regard as politically high risk areas. A higher level of protection of forests against fire, pests and diseases and windthrow will be vital if removals are not to make a significant impact on long term world supplies. Any country which intends to create new forest resources needs to ensure that they will be competitive in the global market.

Time is not on our side. Industrial countries can no longer take the supplies of timber from the world's natural forests for granted. Developing nations can no longer regard their forests as a source of unlimited wealth that can be tapped at will to meet short-term cash needs without considerable risk to the ecological and social benefits which they also provide. I therefore want to say something that dwarfs party politics and matches the problems of nuclear disarmament and even hunger, and that is "tree planting". Each year throughout the world 12M hectares of forest are cleared for agriculture and fuelwood and only 1M hectares are being replanted. I want to see more tree planting across the world and I want to see forest management and not forest exploitation. We must therefore seek agreement with political leaders, the wood industry, and the environmentalists on tree planting. We all want more of it but there is little agreement on how it is to be achieved and how we can attract investment funds from the public and private sectors. I understand all of the feelings and anxieties involved but the fundamental question for us all wherever we live is how we can sustain both the industrial and environmental benefits which our forests provide for generations yet to come.


The European Community (EC)

The Community traces its origin to the Treaty of Paris signed on the 18th April 1951 to create a European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). The experiment proved successful and Member States decided to deepen it and extend it to embrace their entire economies. On the 25th March 1957 they signed the two Treaties of Rome, setting up the European Community (EC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC). The objective of the Treaty of Rome now established over 30 years ago, was to create a single integrated European economy, but despite the removal of Customs duties between Member States by 1966, national markets have been fragmented. "The Single Act" signed in February 1986 and submitted to national parliaments for ratification, amends and complements these Treaties. It came into force on 1st January 1987 and spells out certain objectives for the Community: completion of the European internal market, and the creation by 1992 of a free trade area without frontiers, with the ultimate aim of moving towards economic and monetary union. At the Brussels Summit of 1985 the European Commission was instructed to draw up a detailed programme with a specific timetable for "The Single Market". The Commission Paper, published in 1985, identified 300 actions which would need to be taken. By early 1988 the Commission had tabled some two-thirds of the measures required and over 70 had been adopted by the Council and thus were Community law. By the end of 1988 nearly all the main proposals had been tabled. In order to facilitate the legislative programme, Governments agreed under the Single European Act to amend the voting provisions contained in the Treaty of Rome. It is the Council of Ministers, one for each Member State, which ultimately decides Community policy. Decisions could now be taken on a qualified majority basis on most single market issues. Under the system each Member State has a weighted number of votes depending on its size, and certain issues are exempt from qualified majority voting, such as VAT, where unanimity is still required. The Community now has 12 Member States and 321M citizens.


EC Structure

There are six different institutions serving three separate communities.
 

Power Brokers: Is the Network Closed?

William N. Dennison

No Power Broker's License

1. The structure is coordinated by one person who has the benefit of both a budget and a steering committee. Loose-knit networks which depend entirely on volunteers cannot survive on the long term.
    
2. The goals of the coalition were defined early and explicitly. Short-term objectives were set that built toward those goals and were used as little victories to build and sustain interest.
    
3. Individuals were asked to put aside their organizational pride and personal ego, so that members' needs were of foremost interest.
    
4. There was no place for "me-first" attitudes. A coalition should only be as visible publicly as its constituents desire. Constituents are given first rights to all credit for the coalition's successes. Some within AER would just as soon not be visible. That is okay too.
    
5. Finally, coalitions should exist for action - not just to exchange information. Everyone must understand the action required. If the only desire is to disseminate information without end-result actions, we have not maximized the benefits of the coalitions which we have built through our networking structures.
    

The Alliance for Environment and Resources is action-oriented and able to move quickly, as witnessed in its participation in the northern California fire salvage and rehabilitation activities.


Work To Be Done
I am enthusiastic and excited about our future. We finally have the start of a network that can make a difference. As we work toward sophistication in the use of these tools to achieve our goals, I offer the following additional suggestions to my colleagues:

1. Let us not be ashamed of our industry's past. Rather, we should display the important part that the wood products industry has had through historical societies and museums.
    
2. Let us demonstrate on an everyday basis that we are professionals, we do have a "feel for the land", and that we are proud to be part of an industry that provides thousands of useful commodities for millions of consumers, as well as jobs and a sense of well-being for thousands of individuals and families. All of us are environmentalists too; we care very much about this planet! Industry representatives must address values as well as statistics and production facts. As noted by Ron Arnold, "Values have motivational power. Beliefs and attitudes do not." We must demonstrate vividly and even emotionally that we believe in our rural way of life, our professional judgment, and the importance of our industry to the public. The true public must be shown that our ingenuity and creativity of "land use without abuse" has mutual benefits for all.
    
3. Businessmen can no longer just tend to their immediate business. Although technical and economic aspects of everyday production deserve first priority, owners and Chief Executive Officers must recognize their obligation to participate in social and political activities. Lee Iacocca is a good example of what can be accomplished through high visibility.
    
4. We must develop a political awareness of the necessity to actively maintain a capitalistic economy and gain understanding of the important and positive impact which that economy has on our way of life.
    
5. We must set aside, as much as practicable, differences which fragment our industry and prohibit us from speaking strongly with one voice. Past issues must be put behind us. New differences will occur. We must work diligently to resolve them and then put them behind us. We have too many common goals to conquer to let minor differences stand in our way. Let's utilize the key goals established in Centennial II that were so well explained by Hal Walt during last year's S.J. Hall Lectureship as a standard for our progress.
    
6. We must recognize that the wood products industry structure has changed and will continue to change, at least for the next few years. Industry leaders of associations and coalitions must be flexible. We must continually question past activities to assure that we are still headed in the proper direction.
    

Can't Escape Responsibility
Abraham Lincoln is quoted as noting: "You can't escape the responsibility of tomorrow by avoiding it today. "

This leads me to the question I have posed: Can the wood products industry leaders find a spot within the power brokers network? You bet we can!!! But, we must assume our responsibility today. We must establish our own agenda and not be on the defensive because of crises which are developed by others. We must gain the support of others who share mutual benefits.

This agenda requires enthusiasm, commitment, and activism. All three are not options - they are responsibilities. We owe that responsibility to our profession, our employers, the consumer, and to the real public who depend upon us as professionals to supply them with the 100,000 different wood products that they collectively use in their daily lives.

I urge you students who will soon be entering the forestry profession to do so with enthusiasm and commitment. Be willing to dig for facts. Strive to set the record straight when others use false perceptions. Tonight, I invite all of you to join the art of networking and assist us in earning the right to be the power brokers necessary for us to practice what we were taught.

Introducing: William N. Dennison


William N. Dennison is a third-generation representative of the wood products industry. He was raised in logging communities of northern California and has worked continuously in the industry since he was 16 years of age.

Mr. Dennison graduated with a forestry major from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1959, with a membership in Xi Sigma Pi. He is California Registered Professional Forester No. 926.

Mr. Dennison's timber industry work experience includes surveyor, truck driver, chokersetter, catskinner, road construction foreman, private timberland manager and purchaser and administrator of federal timber sales. His early employers included Sacramento Box and Lumber Co., Mt. Whitney Lumber Co., and Diamond Match Co. It was with Diamond that he gained his forestry experience in the management of 175,000 acres of private land and the appraisal and purchase of federal timber sales.

In 1971 Mr. Dennison began working with Western Lumber Manufacturers, Inc., as Assistant Manager. Later his title was changed to Vice President, Timber Sale Services, which was more descriptive of his responsibility at the time. The organization's name was subsequently changed to Western Timber Association (WTA). In 1980 Mr. Dennison assumed the responsibilities of Executive Vice President of the association, the position he holds today under the title of President.

Mr. Dennison is a Director and Past President, Sierra Cascade Logging Conference; Past President, California Alumni Foresters; and Past President, Cal Forestry Club. He is currently Director, Pacific Logging Congress; Chairman, California Industry Contract Committee; and a Member of the Society of American Foresters' Community Stability Task Force.

He has authored and presented professional papers to a wide variety of audiences, and has, on many occasions, given testimony on behalf of the forest products industry to State legislators and committees of the U.S. Congress.